如何建仓补仓的心得

• 事件回顾：

1. 最近一直在关注bbry和clf，bbry生产blackberry，在之前的一轮智能手机大战中反应迟钝，丧失了很大的市场份额。blackberry以其安全性被商务人士所热爱。今年blackberry强势回归，已经开发上市了Z10，最近这一轮上市的是有物理键盘的智能手机Q10.另外其软件系统也在全面收复失地。bbry能否在ios和android统治的生态系统中找到自己的生存空间，值得期待。 bbry三月份发布的财报比预期要好很多。这也是投资这只股票的原因。我对这只股票的判断是长线看好，短线波动很大，也可以作为短线操作。
2. 另外一只正在关注的股票就是CLF。这是一家历史悠久的开采铁矿石和煤炭的大公司。最近几年由于中国对铁矿和煤矿的大量开发，对其市场造成了很大的影响，股价也是从100多跌至18左右。4月份CLF有增发股票， 股价跌至18左右。五月份的财报显示这家公司的经营状况在好转。公司通过改进技术，提高了生产效率，并降低了生产成本。另外barron杂志在4月8号也推荐买入这只股票。市场预期今年明年的基本材料价格将会上涨。铁矿石的利润也会水涨船高。因此，我也是长线看好这家公司，短期行为上，clf的波动很大，适合短线操作。

• 关于这次建仓和补仓的心得

             看中的股票等到下跌的时候不要冲动的跳进去，要等待机会，先等一天看看，同时参考一下最近会出现的经济数据。如果确实冲动的话，先用papertrade，看看趋势并分析一下市场的各种消息。 然后根据最近一次波动的价格设置一个心理底线，并设置一个alert，价格跌到这个价位的时候开始建仓。建仓的时候不要贪，最好先50股，之后无论是涨或者跌都可以进行补仓。如果第二天继续出现跌的情况，跌幅超过2%，继续补仓50股。若股票开涨的势头也开始确立，可以加大量补仓，果断跟涨。

             这次bbry的操作比较失败，建仓和补仓都太多，等到真正的机会到来的时候，已经没有资金可以操作了。clf还可以，因为一直在建仓bbry，所以clf比较冷静，一直等到了心理价位才建仓。

             所以，如果不是长线投资，不是有持续不断的资金进入的话，每次操作都要慎重。特别是自己看好的公司，虽然长线看好，只是时间的问题，但是时间在资本市场也是很值钱的。所以timing很重要。一定要耐心等待，如果实在按捺不住，可以先用papertrade，或者小量建仓，不用担心手续费，因为手续费而大量建仓，会导致亏得更多。

bbry, bullish or bearish?

blackberry game play platform is so amazing!

I am long bbry, no change. I bet blackberry will come back as a king.

反思bbry的跟涨操作

• 事件回顾： blackberry在英国和加拿大首先发布Q10，市场反应非常好，超过Z10发布时的销售情况。bbry的股票当天开始回头，第二天在销售利好的情况下，一路上杨，势头非常猛劲。当天上午没有跟进，到了下午的时候，已经涨到16.26.这个时候按捺不住跟风的势头，一头砸了进去，然后马上被套牢。 

• 反思和总结

1. bbry是否值得买进？

           blackberry卷土重来，成为热门股票，市场上看好和看空的都不在少数。所以股价一直非常波动。作为短期操作而言，这是一只好股票，短期波动大，流动性好。就长期而言，是否值得投资，还需要进一步的观察。毕竟科技领域，尤其是手机领域是一个日新月异的领域。我个人的研究主要是通过amazon上对新出产品的评价进行判断的。 amazon上对Z10的平均评价是4.5，跟iphone的评价相同。同时留言都认为是最近一年来最有创新的手机产品。Q10在英国的面市更体现了产品的优秀。Z10和Q10应该算不上一个划时代的产品，但是至少能够挽回一些过去的尊严。 至于长期而言，bbry是否值得长线持有，还与公司收益相关，如果公司的收益持续增长，以bbry现在的低市盈率而言，这明显是一只好股票。但是这一切无法预知。 如果是作为短线投资的话，那么这次操作就是非常失败的。短线讲究的是快进快出，timing means everything. 头天没有进，则错失了好的timing，第二天下午跟涨，则是受不住诱惑，不够冷静的表现。

     2.  套牢之后如何应对？

            bbry被套牢之后，股价一下跌了6%，因为本着对自己研究的信任，我选择了继续持有。另外根据上一轮Z10的发布情况，blackberry的手机首先在英国和加拿大发布，然后在印度上市，最后在美国上市。在印度上市前后又将有一轮bullish和bearish的较量。所以，我选择留守。 其中，当股价跌到14.90的时候，我所犹豫的是要不要补仓？最终还是没有补仓，当然当时补仓是正确的，由于当时想更多的卖option，所以没有再买股票。说不上对与不对，任何决定总归有自己的理由。 

     3. 失败操作给我的提示

• 炒股要冷静，机会过去就过去了，股市是一个充满机会的地方，不要在意一时的错过。跟涨短期股票就像在悬崖边赛车，车速太快很容易冲过护栏，投入悬崖，虽然很刺激，但是也很危险。凌空一跃的姿势很优美，落地的那一刻狼狈不堪，伤痛都在自己。 在低速区静静等待，不要着急，车速失控前记得跳车。 车跑的越快，跌的越惨。
• 科技股属于高危类股票，切记买了就忘。科技更新太快，跌涨很迅速。
• 股市玩的是安稳，不是刺激

Real estate investment trust GYPO

Gyrodyne Co. of America Inc. (GYPO)

• company profile

                 Gyrodyne Company of America, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the investment, acquisition, ownership, and management of a portfolio of medical office and industrial properties in the northeast region of the United States. It is also involved in the development of industrial and residential properties. The company focuses on acquiring, developing, owning, leasing, and managing medical, commercial, and industrial real estate. As of March 31, 2012, it had 100% ownership in 3 medical office parks comprising approximately 131,000 rentable square feet; and 1 multitenant industrial park consisting of 128,000 rentable square feet, as well as approximately 68 acres of property in St. James, New York. The company has elected to be taxed as REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax purposes, provided that it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in St. James, New York.

                  In a word, this company invest on real estate in the northeast region of the United States. leasing, owning, managing real estate will make profit for this company. cons: no income tax, so high return to shareholders

• key statistics and main competitors                

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)5: 108.35M Enterprise Value (May 8, 2013)3: 20.06M Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 1.09 Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2014)1: N/A PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: N/A Price/Sales (ttm): 21.92 Price/Book (mrq): 1.69 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 4.02 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: -4.35

       
note: low P/E value of 1.09

Direct Competitor Comparison

GYRO PVT1 CLI PLD Industry Market Cap: 108.35M N/A 2.46B 19.83B N/A Employees: 8 N/A 594 1,445 N/A Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy): -0.12 N/A 0.01 0.01 0.00 Revenue (ttm): 4.99M N/A 710.49M 2.06B N/A Gross Margin (ttm): 0.54 N/A 0.59 0.71 0.00 EBITDA (ttm): -4.61M N/A 374.05M 1.22B N/A Operating Margin (ttm): -1.16 N/A 0.26 0.24 0.00 Net Income (ttm): 99.05M N/A 30.33M -62.98M N/A EPS (ttm): 66.80 N/A 0.31 -0.05 N/A P/E (ttm): 1.09 N/A 90.42 N/A N/A PEG (5 yr expected): N/A N/A 8.35 N/A N/A P/S (ttm): 21.92 N/A 3.43 9.60 N/A

Pvt1 = LeFrak Organization Inc. (privately held)

CLI = Mack-Cali Realty Corp.

PLD = Prologis, Inc.

Industry = REIT - Office From the comparison to competitor, the cap of GYRO is tiny, only 8 employees, and the EPS reached as high as 66.80.  financial  analyzes Income Statement View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data All numbers in thousands Period Ending Dec 30, 2012 Dec 30, 2011 Dec 30, 2010 Total Revenue 4,989   5,520   5,551   Cost of Revenue 2,308   2,347   2,219   Gross Profit 2,681   3,172   3,332   Operating Expenses Research Development -   -   -   Selling General and Administrative 7,575   1,892   2,261   Non Recurring -   -   -   Others 900   876   804   Total Operating Expenses -   -   -   Operating Income or Loss (5,794) 404   267   Income from Continuing Operations Total Other Income/Expenses Net 167,457   (332) (108) Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 161,663   73   159   Interest Expense 966   1,197   1,132   Income Before Tax 160,697   (1,125) (972) Income Tax Expense 61,649   -   109   Minority Interest -   -   -   Net Income From Continuing Ops 99,048   (1,125) (1,081) Non-recurring Events Discontinued Operations -   -   -   Extraordinary Items -   -   -   Effect Of Accounting Changes -   -   -   Other Items -   -   -   Net Income 99,048   (1,125) (1,081) Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments -   -   -   Net Income Applicable To Common Shares 99,048   (1,125) (1,081) Comparing the annual report for the last three years, from 2010 to 2012, the gross revenue is keep decreasing, but the Net income from Continuing options in 2012 rapidly increased to 99,048. The raito of net income/gross revenue make this income suspicious. overall evaluation         I am not confident with GYPO's income statement. The real estate is recovering, but GYPO is going to face competition from other big companies who own more resources. In the real estate field, capital and money rule the game. So I am short GYPO.

To myself

 Research on low P/E value stocks
     I collected a list of low P/E stocks, ranging from 0-5. Many of them are small cap stock, but they have a good potential to be highly-improving stocks. So I will do some research on these stocks, and pick some into my watchlist. 

    Firstly, I would like to format how I do the research.  The research will include such section as follows:

• profile of company, what product it selling, how to make profit.
• compitetor of company, list 3-4 compitetors of this company
• which sector it belongs to, and what property character of this sector
• finantial analyzes
• other news and other path to explore the inside, via social network
• overall evaluation